[ www.egyptologie.be/volvotrucks.htm ]

Dear Martin,
 

 

Approximately on the 20th of each month, Volvo « Group » is publishing the monthly detail (in number of units) of its truck « DELIVERIES ».
    There is a spreadsheet « Trucks deliveries » on their web site, once selecting VOLVO GROUP and then INVESTORS (see its left column).
    The data (Time-Series) are monthly, covering 2007-2009 (V. Heavy) or 2000-2009 (Total), with a split by makers (Renault, Mack, Nissan, ..), area (West Europe, North America (US), South America (Brazil) ...) and size (Light, Medium, Heavy (>14 tons / Class 7+)).  Presently they do not include engines.
    Of all Tractor / Truck makers, only Ashok-Leyland, Hyundai, Mazda, Toyota Motor Co. and the Volvo Group (Volvo AB, world's N°2, behind Daimler-Benz) do explicitly play Total Quality Management (TQM) and Transparency, by clearly communicating to the public(*) an information pretended strategic by some dubious minds.  Up to now, to our knowledge and indirectly, only Cummins and partly Isuzu do the same with their engines «shipments».  Here a shorty (NA = Not Available) :


DELIVERIES by ...

/ Month (M) of [1]
change (loss)
Y on Y

Month (M) of (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

Up to the 15th of June, the month of April 2009 was the lowest in Volvo History, as by example with (5), in « V. Heavy Western Europe » :
*   (2007 Jan.)   131%,    97%,   104%,    90%, (   -   May ) 95.4%, 109%,
    (   -   July)   106%,   111%,    92%,  121%,  104%,  112%,
*   (2008 Jan.)   138%, 133%, 105%, 134%, (   -   May ) 95.7%, 92%,
    (   -   July) 98%, 83%,   86%, 87%, 83%, 78%,
*   (2009 Jan) 50%, 41%, 46%, 35.2%, (   -   May ) 33.1%, 38%,
    (   -   July) 36.7%, 32.4%, 39.9%, 40.8%, (   -   Nov. ) 41.6%, %,

Conclusion : We can not read (5) in « V. Heavy Western Europe » as an « European Economic Indicator » !   Indeed, the deliveries downturn lasted already 12 months since its top on April 2008.   Whatever raising, flat or sinking delivery numbers this month, ratio value for (5) could start to rise.   Only a moving 12 months ratio (7) [purple data] referencing to a fixed « Best 12 months » (May-2007 to April-2008 [GP:2008-09-30]) could remain indicative of the evolution of the recession.   Consequently, we will enforce such fixed value but only at (7) in the « Volvo Heavy Western Europe. » line.   Successive Quarterly Ratios (6) gives only a direction of an eventual trend, i.e. an inflexion point.


 

[1]   We remember that « NEW ORDERS IN », presented in the 2009 First Quarter Report, were some 28% (versus 2008-Q1) i.e. dawn 72% (-72%)..
[2]   January 2000 « GROUP trucks total » was 12.579 units.

  • Volvo tries to be established in China since 1994.
  • Indian maker "Eichers Motors" (JV, trucks segment) is integrated in Volvo since summer 2008.
    [3]   Volvo US:
  • Volvo(s) U.S. (?) monthly sales of "cars and light trucks", i.e. registrations, are available already (DoC) at the start of the next month (3-6th M+1).   Confusion could affect the share price in ST.
    [4]   US trucks Market:
  • Detroit Diesel (DDC), a 100% subsidiary of Daimler AG, with some 40.000 engines a year?   Their Turbo-Diesel (TD) engine powers the Jeep Cherokee (It, DDC's VM Motori group (100K engines/year)).
  • GMC (New « GM Commercial » trucks) decided, end of May 2009, to stop manufacturing light trucks.
  • Mack : From January 2007, all makers deliveries was strongly affected by « early purchases » in 2006 following change in US regulation (engine-emissions rules).   However, from April 2009, its decline aligned to Europe !
  • FreightLigner is the third leg of Daimler Trucks.

    In the month of June 2009, the US's market share pie (half of 2009) charts :

    1. Navistar's «International» with a 29.5% or 12.832 trucks sold,  
    2. Daimler's «Freightliner» (27%, 11.743 trucks).  
    3. Paccar with : «Kenworth» (11% or 4.791 trucks) and «Peterbilt» (11.8% or 5.134 trucks), total (22,8% or 16.925 trucks) .
    4. Volvo AB's (8% or 3.491 sales) «Trucks» to be added with «Mack» (7% or 3.117).  
    5. Ford seems to make the balance.
    * Total (6 months):  trucks or 94,5% on a total of 43,457 (Ward’s Automotive).   This can be compared with 8.006 trucks in June alone ?
    Navistar still dominates partly thanks to its strategy centered on US Army and Marine Corps.   Previously (2007), Ford accounted for 58% of Navistar's engines sales and 14% of its revenues !
    [5]   Nissan Diesel is only consolidated since April 2007.   They had (?) a cooperation with the Chinese Dongfeng Group.
    [6]   Renault S.A. owns some 22% of Volvo Group's capital.  
  • « Renault Trucks » - called in France RVI (Renault Vehicules Industriels) - as well as « Mack » are integrated in the Volvo Group since many years (2001).
  • In Turkey, RVI has a Joint Venture with Karsan.
    [7]   Volvo Truck's major European Competitors are, in alphabetic order :
  • DAF (PacCar Inc., 100%.) [10],
  • Daimler-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, NAFTA, Mitsubishi Fuso (J, MFTBC, Kawasaki, 85% owned), 10% Kamaz) (D) [10]
  • Iveco, Industrial Vehicle Corporation (It / Fiat / EXOR, ex.FIL, ex.IFIL[10]
  • Man (D / VW 29,5%) [10]
  • Scania (SE / Equity : VW 46%, MAN 13%) [10]
    [8]   Volvo Sweden's « Power Train » (Skövde) is, from April 2009, on reduced working hours (by 20%) up to march 2010 (agreement made with the unions) : « Summa, noll nya lastbilsorder i Europa detta kvartal, alltså. » (Göteborg-Posten, 24-10-2008, Leif Johansson, CEO)

    (*) the safest method is by spreadsheet (Hyundai,Volvo) organised by vehicule model versus date, as the important point is concistency, not beauty.


  • [10]   Volkswagen controls partly MAN and Scania (20% sold by Volvo to VW [1999-2001]).  
    Scania First Quarter 2009's order bookings shrank to 26%, i.e. by 74% (-74%).  
    Consolidated as of March 31, 2009 (Q2), MAN controls now VW's Trucks.   The Brazilian operations accounted (2008) for some 55.100 units (46138 trucks + 8.975 buses) , i.e. % of the new joint operation, an increase which will be integrated in MAN's 2009 figures from Q2-09.   Considering VW by itself, 66% of its car production is made outside Germany.


    (Companies are sorted by date, i.e. according the Quality of their Public Reporting :
    by units, Monthly then Quarterly, then by Net Sales, Quarterly then Annual.
    )
    DELIVERIES by COMPETITORS
    / Month (M) of [1]
    change (loss)
    Y on Y


    (sorted by reporting date)
    Units Reporting : Quarterly
    [ Scania P340 ]
    [15]
    [16]
    [18]
    Net Sales Reporting : Quarterly or Yearly
    [26]
    [22]
    [22]
    Month (M) of          

    When quarterly data are not available from 10-Q/10-K forms or others, competitors' figures are mostly yearly, resulting in M / M-1 = 100%, as well as frequent identity between yearly and quarterly ratios.   We deplore it.

    [11]   IVECO - a 1975 alliance between Fiat, Unic (D) and Magirus (F) - purchased the Spanish Enasa in 1990, including its top-line heavy-truck brand, Pegaso; under 1989, those produced 11.000 light and heavy trucks.   In China, Iveco and SAIC Motor Co started (2005) production of trucks and diesel engines.   It should be noticed that Fiat's FPT (Fiat Power-Train) is unique to the group and, financially, reported as a unit independ of the truck deliveries.   This does not affects Iveco's "deliveries" figures as such but only its eventual profitability.   In addition, the same question occurs with "light commercial vehicles", as for VW.
    [12]   China is expected to produce two million trucks units in 2010, i.e. some 175.000 units a month, compared with 350.000 units yearly in Europe (2008) and (2006) a record 322.500 Class-8 units in the U.S.

  • The FAW Group («First Automotive Works», 15 July 1966) and the DMC (Dongfeng Motor Corp.) are the country's two largest car makers.   They grabbed 80% of the domestic heavy-truck market.   DMC was engaged with Nissan.

  • China National Heavy Duty Truck Corp. (CNHTC) is in relation with MAN and Steyr since 1984.   They own the remaining 20% of the Chinese Heavy Trucks market (100.000 HT units in 2008).
      CNHTC has a venture with Volvo AB which produced 200 trucks !

  • SAIC Motor Co (Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation) is China third automaker ("3+X"=SAIC, FAW & Dongfeng with (2007) 38.38%, 1.56%, and 8.52% market share).   SAIC, Iveco and the Chongqing Heavy Vehicle Group Co have a joint venture (SAIC-Iveco Hongyan / SIH) which produces some 21,200 Heavy Trucks.   Isuzu (Japan, a GM affiliate (JV.s)) cooperates too on trucks with SAIC since 2003.

  • Volkswagen has two joint-ventures in China (FAW-VW et SAIC-VW).
  • DaimlerChrysler has an investment in Beiqi Foton Motor Co which already manufactures luxury Mercedes cars.
    [13]   * DAF / Leyland Trucks deliveries are already included in PacCar line.   Leyland Bus was acquired by Volvo in 1988.   Pac(ific)Car - a former Heavy Mil. Spec. maker - controls the name-plates Kenworth (Father Xmas' red trucks), Peterbilt (US), Foden (UK), DAF (NL/BE).
    [14]   In Daimler, Trucks - FreightLiner and Mitsubishi Fuso included - represent some 22% of the Group's revenue where cars stands for 55%.
    The three main legs of Daimlers' trucks division are even not precisely equal.   In 2006, on a total of 536.956 units/year, the pie was : Mercedes=142.104 or 26,6%; Fuso=186.577 or 34,7%; FreightLiner=208.275 or 38,8%.
    In 2003, Mitsubishi Fuso was separated from Mitsubishi Motors to become an exclusive truck & bus manufacturer.   Now (2008), Daimler owns 85% of the capital.
    According Daimler, « vans » represent some 60,8% of their total trucks sales (FY 2008), i.e. 287,200 out of 472.074 trucks units.   That leaves the Light-, Medium- and Heavy-trucks part with less then 190.000 units/year or some 16.000 units/month!  
    Vans are mostly an european speciality (80%) with seven players sharing each 10 to 15% of the pie each.   Renaul Trucks France presents vans and light-trucks on an equal footing.   Consequently, it remains to be seen if the same occurs with Mercedes ?
    [15]   Isuzu / GM.   « Isuzu was producing 16 million diesel engines in 2005 alone ! » : Isuzu stopped manufacturing cars in late 1990s.   Under FY2010-Q1 (Apr-Jun 2009), Heavy- and Medium-duty Trucks (H/D plus M/D) sales in Japan went (Y-on-Y) from 4.640 to 1.969 units (-57% Y-on-Y), however still keeping their 28% share of the market.   Participate in the capital of Isuzu : Dai-Ichi Kangyo, Itochu Co., Marubeni, Mitsubishi and Toyota , still an exemple of the ancient Keretsu (horizontal-alliance) concept.
    [16]   Ford : Ford Trucks of Britain, was eventually sold to Iveco group 12 in 1986.   « In the USA, Ford's heavy trucks division (Classes 7 and 8) was sold in 1997 to Freightliner Trucks, now part of Daimler AG 11...   Ford continues building (abroad) medium class trucks with the F-650 ... » (on Navistar, Isuzu ... engines).
    FPP (Ford Power Products) is a Service Component based on two Companies in Michigan and Essex.  They sell engines, transmissions and other to OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturers).  The Brook Park Plant, Ohio, delivered 59,3 million engines over 58 years, and presently 3.5-liter EcoBoostTM V-6 engine, « expanding availability to 90 percent of Ford’s nameplates by 2013 ? ». 
    [17]   Hino Motors Ltd is an associate to Toyota (51% owned since 2001).   According them, the Japanese M-/H-Truck market was 62 K in FY2009.   They manufacture too (FY2009) 120.271 Light-duty trucks, Land-Cruisers and the like for Toyota. They will expand Light-Duty line and work on the power-train structure.  In 1971, they received the Deming Award; Deming was one of the 4 Masters of Quality Control and TQM.
    [18]   The FAW Group (First Automotive Works) manufactures some 7.000 K vehicles worldwide.  It had a partnership (1991) with Volkswagen AG, and later with Toyota Motor.   and defend its dominance in the commercial truck market (FAW Jiefang Truck Co. Ltd., since 1956, Jief ang = 'Liberation').
    [19]   GAZ or AOA GAZ Group - « Gorkovski Avtomobilny Zavod / Usine automobile de Gorki » presents itself as Russia's largest automotive manufacturer of the Russian Federation.  Their Sales turn at BUSD 3.5.  It contains 7 divisions :

    • 1) Light Trucks (141.274 units, 29,5% of Total Sales, 58,3% of the Russian LCV Market). 
    • 3) Trucks (Medium=24.730 units, 20,9% of Total Sales, 52,4% of MVC Market). 
    • 6) Powertrain / Engines (named R6.11l (Renault), UMZ (Ulyanovsk) & YaMZ (Yaroslavl); 9,7%).  UMZ stands for Ulyanovsk Motor Plan/Zavod/usine.  However, it is Steyr (Autriche) who provides them with their LCV "GAZelle" engine, as is the case for a V.B.L (Véhicule Blindé Léger) from Panhard, the PVP XL (équipé d'un Turbo Diesel Steyer de 270 CV).  Panhard, previously PSA, was purchased by the Auverland Holding.

    [20]   Cummins - The largest independent maker of diesel engines and related products in the world.  In January 2007, its 6,7-liter turbo diesel engine, made for the Dodge Ram pickup, meets the 2010 U.S. EPA emissions standards for nitrogen oxides. 
    Cummins Net Sales (FY2008) were (14 B.USD) : Engines (8.8).  Engine shipments split (Q3-2008) as follow: Midrange (120-425hp) 102.400 units or 75%; Heavy Duty (280-600hp) 29.400 or 21% and High-horsepower 5.300 or 5%.  However, Medium- and Heavy-duty truck Sales do only represent 45% of their "all engines" segment.  To be noticed too is that power-generation (3.5 B.USD/Y) constitue one of their other segments.  Engine factories : (1) JVs Dongfeng Cummins and Xi’an Cummins developed Euro IV diesel engines, (2) Columbus Midrange Engine Plant, which assembles diesel engines for the Dodge Ram truck, (3)
    [23]  
    [24]   Caterpillar Inc. - FY2008 (M.USD) : Engines = 16.230, Machinery = 31.804, on a total of 51.324 M.USD (51 billions USD), however Engines are 50% of their profits !.
    [25]   Komatsu LLC. «plants.  We are also going to make additional investments for key components which are the source of our product competitiveness and are mainly produced in Japan, such as engines (Oyama Plant ?), hydraulic equipment and final gears.»  Since October 2007, the KOMTRAX system is mounted on about 80,000 Komatsu machines working around the world. (HYR-2007)
    [26]   AGCO Challenger, Massey Ferguson, ... tractors : The Challenger line uses a CAT engine.  They manufacture, in Finland, SISU (ex.Valtra) 7-cylinders off-road engines with Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) Technology.  Their Net Sales (B.USD) was : (2008) 8,4 and (2007) 6,8, where (2008) 5,6 and (2007) 4,6 where only for tractors commonly 66% of Sales (p.114).
    [27]   KamAZ, usine d'automobiles de la Kamai is a trucks maker (2006 : production=47.937 units).  Engines seem provided.  FY2002: 20,089 trucks (KamAZ-6520), 38,500 cars; and nearly 25,000 diesel engines. 
    Currently, SHAAZ in Russia is pioneering the use of CuproBraze and CACs radiators.  KAMAZ Inc. is 10% own by Daimler and has a joint venture (2006) with Cummins Inc. producing Euro-3 and Euro-4 engines (KamAZ series B, 140-275 hp) for the Russian market.  Net Sales (2007) are in the range of B.RUR 3.453. or M.EUE 76', '');


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